Haven's official language?

In article <SvydnVykq8fLiFneRVn-pQ RemoveThis @comcast.com>,
G Wheelock <gwheelock RemoveThis @comcast.net> wrote:
>
>"deowll" <deowll RemoveThis @bellsouth.net> wrote in message
>news:WpFwf.56491$Lb1.7686@bignews3.bellsouth.net...

>> Not my personal opinion but I've read that there are fewer native English
>> speakers now that a few decades back. This suggests its becoming a sort of
>> second language rather than a first language.

>I suspect that this ("native" speakers) is as a PERCENTAGE of all
>English speakers & equates more with the rise of offshore call
>service centers & tech support. & the like.

It could also refer to a percentage of the world's total
population. Most of the countries where English is the usual first
language have relatively low birth rates (US, UK, Canada, Australia,
New Zealand, etc). They could easily be overtaken by other languages
that are spoken widely in regions with larger birth rates, like
Spanish (Latin American) or Chinese.

I do agree, however, that if such a decline is actual, then it is
almost certainly a decline of some sort of percentage, not of the
absolute number.

--
======================================================================
"It's not denial. I'm just very selective about
what I accept as reality."
--- Calvin ("Calvin and Hobbes")
======================================================================

Arturo Magidin
magidin RemoveThis @math.berkeley.edu
 >> Stay informed about: Haven's official language? 

Arturo Magidin wrote:
> In article <SvydnVykq8fLiFneRVn-pQ RemoveThis @comcast.com>,
> G Wheelock <gwheelock RemoveThis @comcast.net> wrote:
>> "deowll" <deowll RemoveThis @bellsouth.net> wrote in message
>> news:WpFwf.56491$Lb1.7686@bignews3.bellsouth.net...
>
>>> Not my personal opinion but I've read that there are fewer native English
>>> speakers now that a few decades back. This suggests its becoming a sort of
>>> second language rather than a first language.
>
>> I suspect that this ("native" speakers) is as a PERCENTAGE of all
>> English speakers & equates more with the rise of offshore call
>> service centers & tech support. & the like.
>
> It could also refer to a percentage of the world's total
> population. Most of the countries where English is the usual first
> language have relatively low birth rates (US, UK, Canada, Australia,
> New Zealand, etc). They could easily be overtaken by other languages
> that are spoken widely in regions with larger birth rates, like
> Spanish (Latin American) or Chinese.
>
> I do agree, however, that if such a decline is actual, then it is
> almost certainly a decline of some sort of percentage, not of the
> absolute number.
>

There was an article on this in a newspaper or magazine I read
sometime in the past few years. I spent parts of the last few
days trying to find that article on-line before posting here, but
no such luck. I /think/ the magazine was "Economist", but it
could have been Sci Am or "National Geographic".

What I remember of that article is that the number of people who
speak English as their first language (EFL) is more or less
holding steady in absolute terms, but falling gradually as a
proportion to the world population.

That article also commented on the number of people who know
English as a secondary language (ESL). That number is increasing
rapidly in absolute terms, but not as a proportion of the
world's population. Within the ESL population there are
noticeable sub-trends: ESL within Canada, UK, USA, Australia is
increasing but ESL outside of those four countries is decreasing.

Further, the article noted that the populations of Canada, UK,
USA, and Australia would be falling if it were not for
immigration from countries where few speak English. As a
result, it is expected that by 2020 the *absolute* numbers of EFL
in those countries will start to decline.

As well, the number of people *born* in those four countries who
learn ESL is rising: there is a small but growing trend for
children of immigrants to *not* speak any English until it is
time for them to enter the school system.
 >> Stay informed about: Haven's official language? 

On Tue, 10 Jan 2006 17:37:14 -0600, Rob Stow <rob.stow DeleteThis @sasktel.net>
wrote:
>
> there is a small but growing trend for
>children of immigrants to *not* speak any English until it is
>time for them to enter the school system.
>

That's actually traditional in the USA, when neighborhoods are
populated by immigrants who speak the same non-English language. In
the late 1800s and early 1900s there was a sizeable population of
German immigrants in New Jersey, in Guttenberg, Union City, West New
York, and surrounding towns. My mother, who was born in 1911 to a
German immigrant couple who lived in West New York, spoke only German
until she entered school. I believe it was much the same for the
Scandinavian people who immigrated to the upper Midwest around the
same time.
 >> Stay informed about: Haven's official language? 

In article <11s8gubb2i9ib3c.RemoveThis@corp.supernews.com>,
Rob Stow <rob.stow.RemoveThis@sasktel.net> wrote:

[.snip.]

>> I do agree, however, that if such a decline is actual, then it is
>> almost certainly a decline of some sort of percentage, not of the
>> absolute number.
>>
>
>There was an article on this in a newspaper or magazine I read
>sometime in the past few years. I spent parts of the last few
>days trying to find that article on-line before posting here, but
>no such luck. I /think/ the magazine was "Economist", but it
>could have been Sci Am or "National Geographic".
>
>What I remember of that article is that the number of people who
>speak English as their first language (EFL) is more or less
>holding steady in absolute terms, but falling gradually as a
>proportion to the world population.

That one I believe.

>That article also commented on the number of people who know
>English as a secondary language (ESL). That number is increasing
> rapidly in absolute terms, but not as a proportion of the
>world's population. Within the ESL population there are
>noticeable sub-trends: ESL within Canada, UK, USA, Australia is
>increasing but ESL outside of those four countries is decreasing.
>
>Further, the article noted that the populations of Canada, UK,
>USA, and Australia would be falling if it were not for
>immigration from countries where few speak English. As a
>result, it is expected that by 2020 the *absolute* numbers of EFL
>in those countries will start to decline.

These sort of projections are almost invariably useless. Growth, in
things like this, is not exponential but logistic: after a certain
critical mass, the growth necessarily slows down.

My standard example for a beginning statistics class is the following:
if you take the growth rate of population in all of Mexico for the
past 30 years and project forward, and do the same thing with the
population of just Mexico City, by the year 2020 there will be more
people living in Mexico City than in all of Mexico; note, however,
that the figure for "all of Mexico" includes the people in Mexico
City.
--
======================================================================
"It's not denial. I'm just very selective about
what I accept as reality."
--- Calvin ("Calvin and Hobbes")
======================================================================

Arturo Magidin
magidin.RemoveThis@math.berkeley.edu
 >> Stay informed about: Haven's official language? 

Arturo Magidin wrote:
> In article <11s8gubb2i9ib3c RemoveThis @corp.supernews.com>,
> Rob Stow <rob.stow RemoveThis @sasktel.net> wrote:
>
> [.snip.]
>
>>> I do agree, however, that if such a decline is actual, then it is
>>> almost certainly a decline of some sort of percentage, not of the
>>> absolute number.
>>>
>> There was an article on this in a newspaper or magazine I read
>> sometime in the past few years. I spent parts of the last few
>> days trying to find that article on-line before posting here, but
>> no such luck. I /think/ the magazine was "Economist", but it
>> could have been Sci Am or "National Geographic".
>>
>> What I remember of that article is that the number of people who
>> speak English as their first language (EFL) is more or less
>> holding steady in absolute terms, but falling gradually as a
>> proportion to the world population.
>
> That one I believe.
>
>> That article also commented on the number of people who know
>> English as a secondary language (ESL). That number is increasing
>> rapidly in absolute terms, but not as a proportion of the
>> world's population. Within the ESL population there are
>> noticeable sub-trends: ESL within Canada, UK, USA, Australia is
>> increasing but ESL outside of those four countries is decreasing.
>>
>> Further, the article noted that the populations of Canada, UK,
>> USA, and Australia would be falling if it were not for
>> immigration from countries where few speak English. As a
>> result, it is expected that by 2020 the *absolute* numbers of EFL
>> in those countries will start to decline.
>
> These sort of projections are almost invariably useless. Growth, in
> things like this, is not exponential but logistic: after a certain
> critical mass, the growth necessarily slows down.

For brevity, I'm going to start using CUUA to refer to "Canada,
UK, USA, and Australia".

A big factor in the 2020 projection was the fact that in CUUA,
because of its low (and still declining) birth rate for the past
few decades, the EFL population is old and getting older. In
particular, in all four of the CUUA countries a large fraction of
the EFL population came from the post-WWII baby boom.

By 2020 the average age of the surviving baby boomers will have
finally more or less matched their current average life
expectancy. They will have begun to die off relatively fast, in
other words. For example, in Canada the life expectancy for men
born in 1950 is only 73, IIRC. And for the last few decades
Canada has had the highest life expectancies among the CUAA
countries - the other three countries will presumably feel the
loss of the baby boomers a little earlier.

Currently the number of EFL children born to CUUA immigrants is
high enough to make up for the low birth rate among
non-immigrants only because of the currently low death rate: the
EFL population is getting older, but not yet dying. However,
when the baby boomers start to die off more rapidly, EFL children
born to immigrants will no longer be enough to make up for the
falling birthrate among non-immigrants *and* the higher death
rate of the baby boomers.



>
> My standard example for a beginning statistics class is the following:
> if you take the growth rate of population in all of Mexico for the
> past 30 years and project forward, and do the same thing with the
> population of just Mexico City, by the year 2020 there will be more
> people living in Mexico City than in all of Mexico; note, however,
> that the figure for "all of Mexico" includes the people in Mexico
> City.

But the ESL vs EFL situation doesn't fit your analogy because
rather than one being a subgroup of the other they are
distinct non-overlapping populations. Ie., a person is either
ESL or EFL or neither - he can never be both ESL and EFL at the
same time.
 >> Stay informed about: Haven's official language? 

In article <11sau4g21cldfb1.DeleteThis@corp.supernews.com>,
Rob Stow <rob.stow.DeleteThis@sasktel.net> wrote:

[.snip.]

>> My standard example for a beginning statistics class is the following:
>> if you take the growth rate of population in all of Mexico for the
>> past 30 years and project forward, and do the same thing with the
>> population of just Mexico City, by the year 2020 there will be more
>> people living in Mexico City than in all of Mexico; note, however,
>> that the figure for "all of Mexico" includes the people in Mexico
>> City.
>
>But the ESL vs EFL situation doesn't fit your analogy because
>rather than one being a subgroup of the other they are
>distinct non-overlapping populations. Ie., a person is either
>ESL or EFL or neither - he can never be both ESL and EFL at the
>same time.

The point is not that the situations are analogous per se; rather, the
point is that "projecting forward" tends to mess things up. Growth
tends to be exponential for small populations but logarithmic for
larger ones. This is true, for example, in the growth of ESL's within
traditional EFL countries: the percentage of people who are educating
their children with some other language first (e.g., the parents'
native language first) was described as "small but growing."
Projecting forward will result in an exponential growth curve that is
almost certain ->not<- to be accurate beyond a 5-10 year
limit. Consider also what happens when the third generation comes up:
will they be ESLs? Or will their parents decide to educate them as
EFLs? With pressures in the US, for example, to reduce bilingual
instruction, you can bet your booties that this will affect the growth
curve.

Not that this sort of projections is completely useless; but it tends
to be a very bad predictor.

--
======================================================================
"It's not denial. I'm just very selective about
what I accept as reality."
--- Calvin ("Calvin and Hobbes")
======================================================================

Arturo Magidin
magidin.DeleteThis@math.berkeley.edu
 >> Stay informed about: Haven's official language? 

The following article contains an improbable number of coincidences.
Beware!

deowll wrote:
>> You are so right. I really do want to read a bunch of book that were written
>> in Latin and early Greek but I don't have time to learn the languages.

I just happen to be reading Dan Simmons's _Olympos_ right now. The
resurrected classics scholar Dr. Thomas Hockeberry (from Indiana
University in Bloomington, Indiana, which my sister just happened to
graduate from last year), who's been recruited to witness and report
upon the Trojan War by beings who believe themselves to be the
Olympian gods, often drops into Latin when he sees an event described
by, say, Virgil.

(Simmons should probably be the favorite SF author of high school lit
teachers. _Hyperion_ is dominated by Keats, for instance, and
_Illium_/_Olympos_ are full of Shakespeare, Proust, Homer, etc.)

On 10 Jan 2006, Mikko Nahkola <mnahkola.TakeThisOut@trein.ntc.nokia.com> wrote:
>Well, you _could_ just read the translations. That's almost good enough.
>I'm _not_ going to learn Assyrian and Babylonian just to read Gilgamesh,
>for example, but I've read two separate translations...

The thing with *those* languages is no native speaker is going to pop
up and criticize your translation for its lack of flair. With living,
modern langaguages, they do.

>Is there some sort of a widespread aversion to translated texts among
>the English-speaking public, or something? Sure looks like it.

One of the issues of _The New Yorker_ from November 2005 (which I was
reading just last night) has a lengthy article about translations of
Russian novels, and what makes them good or bad.

It happens that the late-19-cen(?) American(?) woman -- whose name I
cannot recall just now -- who translated many Russian works (_War and
Peace_, _Brothers Karamazov_, etc.) did so in such a rush that she
dropped anything she couldn't translate quickly, and imposed her own
structure on the sentences and word patterns. "The reason college
students can't tell the difference between Tolstoy and Dostoyevsky,"
the article says, "is because they're really reading (whatever her
name is)."

And about a year ago, _Smithsonian_(?) had an article on why the first
and most common English translation of the novels of Jules Vernes are,
well, bad. Lots of material was dropped, including anything
politically incorrect in, or critical of, 19-cen America.

Right now, anime fans are gushing over the Kevin Leahy translation of
the _Vampire Hunter D_ books by Japanese novelist Hideyuki Kikuchi.
The English version reads oddly, but Mr.Leahy has assured fans that
the original Japanese text wasn't entirely standard to begin with.

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 >> Stay informed about: Haven's official language?