Insurrection

On Wed, 16 Jul 2003 10:55:45 -0400, Dan Swartzendruber
<dswartz.DeleteThis@druber.com> wrote:

 >
 >I made my 2-3 year cycle through this series just recently, and I still
 >think the first attack on Zephrain was stupid. As I recall, the TF has
 >fortresses guarding the warp point, as well as some mobile units (I
 >don't recall those being described in any particular detail, but I don't
 >get the impression they were particularly heavy - certainly the battle
 >line units [including Admiral Trevayne's monitors] were not [I seem to
 >recall them being at Zephrain]). The ostensible reason for the frontal
 >attack on the warp point was to act as a diversion, allowing the cloaked
 >carriers to launch a massive fighter strike at the warp point defenders,
 >from behind. Okay... This still doesn't make sense, given that you
 >have a closed warp point you can use to enter Zephrain System, without
 >the knowledge of the TF defenders. Let's say you can get the cloaked
 >carriers real close to the warp point, where they can launch their
 >surprise fighter strike. Even if you surprise the warp point fortresses
 >(and mobile units), by the time the fighters arrive, the defenders will
 >already be at General Quarters due to the diversionary attack. Seems to
 >me it would have been better to bring the whole attack force through the
 >closed warp point (at least all of the units that can cloak) and use the
 >cloaked carriers the exact same way, only now you're launching your
 >fighter strike against warp point defenses that far less combat-
 >effective (I seem to recall the drill was at any given time, 25% of the
 >defenders were at GQ, the rest would not have had shields or point
 >defense active.) For that matter, since the point is to seize Zephrain
 >and it's weapons labs, screw the warp point fortresses! They are a
 >major component of the total defensive firepower, but they are immobile
 >and can be ignored (or taken out later.) Use the surprise fighter
 >strike against Trevayne's battle line units in orbit at Zephrain -
 >you've got a good chance of complete surprise, and even if not, you can
 >engage the defenders in detail, rather than squandering units on a
 >frontal assault against a warp point.

The objectives of the mission define the actions to be taken.

The Republic wanted Zephrain intact and secured. That means taking
out the mobile defenses. With that accomplished, securing the planet
itself is just a matter of time. If they just wanted to destroy the
labs and shipwards, then striking for them from cloak would make
sense.

But they didn't want that.

The attack was mistimed though. Not sure exactly why, or how much.
But it took some bad luck for Trevayne's monitor group to be
positioned just wrong, so the carrier force would meet them -- and
feel compelled to close to engage them -- away from the warp point
defenders.

It also took bad luck for them to get detected. Even allowing that
Trevayne's crew was just about the best there is at sensors, cloaking
usually works well at long ranges. The carriers were just shy of
launch range -- which of course is why Trevayne ordered an immediate
attack. If it had taken another minute, the carriers would have
launched. Even if they died from missiles, the fighters would
probably be enough to take out a monitor group without fighters of its
own.


Still, as Li Han noted, the assault was poorly coordinated, and
failed because of that. Lacking the resources for a two prong
assault, maybe they should have tried for a pure back door raid,
secure the planet, and all that. But that would leave the enemy out,
secure to raid and strike, and the planet might resist occupation
effectively if they have loyal forces out there free in space.

Note: behind does matter. The starship blind spot affects sensors,
and it isn't possible to spot a cloaked ship behind you. Drawing the
patrol forces to watch the warp point, and be engaged in battle, would
sensibly mean that looking for cloaked intruders where none could
possibly be wouldn't happen.

That got pointed out in the book too. Another crew might have
ignored the signs of a cloaked ship, because none would be out there
in a system you control fully.


So, how would it have worked, if the plan went perfectly?

The frontal assault force would do its damage, without significant
losses. The mobile defense force would be pinned, unable to run from
a carrier battlegroup. The carriers wouldn't face a warp point
defense, so they'd be in system, able to rearm and resupply the
assault. Not only would the fortresses be reduced easily by fighters,
there would be a fair shot at forcing a surrender.

That is a goal which is easy to justify. Not only defeat Trevayne,
but capture monitors and secure surrender of Zephrain.

Even if you merely destroyed the monitors, it would assure control.
No chance to let those big monsters get away to cause trouble
elsewhere. Having secured the main warp point, they'd have an easy
time blockading the system, moving transports in, and pretty much
mopping up.

I think it was overly optimistic, and they didn't have the forces to
do it right. If they had, of course, the fight would have gone
differently. Rather than a single scout cruiser, a flotilla of
cruisers and battlecruisers would sweep ahead as eyes of the carriers.
Getting a shot on the carriers might work, but taking them all
wouldn't.

But of course, the Republic didn't have the forces to pull that off,
which is why they tried a risky two-prong sneak attack.
--
*-__Jeffery Jones__________| *Starfire* |____________________-*
** Muskego WI Access Channel 14/25 <http://www.execpc.com/~jeffsj/mach7/>
*Starfire Design Studio* <http://www.starfiredesign.com/><!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
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You make some good points, but I don't think they're addressing my
points. I wasn't advocating taking out the labs and shipyards, but
blitzing Trevayne's monitors while they were in orbit, with shields and
point defense offline. I'm also not sure why you think the frontal
assault force is going to take out the warp point defenses without
losses. My way, Trevayne's heavy units are destroyed or crippled with
little losses to the Republican attackers. You're now in control of
Zephrain orbital space and can demand their surrender. The warp point
fortresses can play with themselves, since they're out of the equation.
 >> Stay informed about: Insurrection 

In article <2c4d2d0b.0307180959.55de9d1e DeleteThis @posting.google.com>,
creon_the_mad DeleteThis @yahoo.com says...
 > There were three components to the defensive stragegy.
 >
 > 1) They thought Trevayne was off balance, and needed to make sure he
 > didn't get those labs on line for the Federation.

Okay? And this is relevant why?

 > 2) The League was frighteningly overconfident and just a frighteningly
 > inexperienced. Their plan drew from both these wells.

What is the League? Do you mean the Republic? If so, you're making my
point - it was a stupid plan.

 > 3) The closed warp point would not have remained secret from a full
 > fleet transit. The League considered the fact that their best bet was
 > a surprise fighter strike. They "knew" the Federation was fighter-poor
 > at this point, and thought they'd win easily.

This is fallacious. My main point was: use the carriers to Pearl Harbor
Trevayne's battle line units while they are sitting ducks in Zephrain
orbit. Even if I agreed that you couldn't send your own battle line
through cloaked, fine, send them through *after* you've blitzed
Trevayne's monitors. Even if you don't kill them all, you'll inflict
major damage. Then you send your own battle line units through to
finish off any mobile defenders and seize the planet. Despite all the
arguments to the contrary, no-one has yet made a convincing case why you
want to make a costly frontal assault against prepared warp point
defenses when you can come in the back door.<!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
 >> Stay informed about: Insurrection 

On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 13:44:05 -0400, Dan Swartzendruber
<dswartz.DeleteThis@druber.com> wrote:

 >
 >You make some good points, but I don't think they're addressing my
 >points. I wasn't advocating taking out the labs and shipyards, but
 >blitzing Trevayne's monitors while they were in orbit, with shields and
 >point defense offline. I'm also not sure why you think the frontal
 >assault force is going to take out the warp point defenses without
 >losses. My way, Trevayne's heavy units are destroyed or crippled with
 >little losses to the Republican attackers. You're now in control of
 >Zephrain orbital space and can demand their surrender. The warp point
 >fortresses can play with themselves, since they're out of the equation.

The Republic knew that the warp point defense forces were present for
sure. Where the monitors were at was a mystery. If they *were* in
orbit, then a "Pearl Harbor" attack, analogous to the bombardment of
the big shipyards, would work.

But what if they weren't there? To find out, the carrier group
would need to get close enough to risk detection, and at that point
they'd be rather committed to an attack on the planet. In fact, they
might not get away if they were wrong about the fast mobile forces at
the planet. Plus -- I'm not positive of course -- there could be
fighters based there, even though there were no carrier ships.

The warp point, OTOH, is known to have at least some of the mobile
force present, plus the forts. If you're lucky, the monitors will be
there too.

As for why the assault takes few losses, retreat is a viable option.
Ships get ripped up, but the first wave in has some chance of turning
about and escaping before dying. There is no need to stick around.
With SBMHAWK pod missiles, the defense can be weakened. Even if the
assault force goes away, forces on the warp point can't pull back or
relax too much.

Given the travel time for Trevayne, it seems unlikely that the
assault was a single engagement. It was more a hit and run, strike
and fall back sort of assault, rather than a committed unrelenting
push.


I do think that if the Republic had enough fast cloaked units, the
direct assault would have made sense. But Zephrain's planetary
defenses are -- as best as I recall -- one of the best around. The
fortresses built to stop the Bugs were mostly mothballed, but I don't
think they dismantled all of the orbiting and surface (rare among
Federation worlds) defenses built to protect the key base against the
pesky Bugs.

So they needed to smash Trevayne's mobile force and have enough
firepower left to overwhelm the planetary defense. That means a lot
of the ships which are too slow or uncloaked models, in order to have
the firepower to secure an easy surrender.

Less than that, and I figure that Zephrain would tell the intruders
to suck rocks (or vacuum). Unless the force can reduce the shipyards
-- which they want intact -- and the defenses (which would be nice to
keep), surrender means having clear overwhelming force, and a
superiority in morale.

Blowing away Trevayne's forces and all the mobile forces would do a
lot to make that work.

Still, a sneak attack trying to catch the ships in port would be
wise, if they could time that to match a similar strike against the
known warp point defense force. Hit both at once, so that neither can
warn the other of the hidden attackers. Couple it with a direct
assault, since it is still a bit shorter route to come in that way,
and once they take Zephrain, they'll want it as a supply line.

I think they made a mistake, but a couple of minutes more without
detection, and Trevayne would be the one fighting to the death,
possibly hit without effective countermeasure. Once the fighters are
up and flying, taking a shot at the carriers won't seem nearly as
vital as pot shots at the fighters. Long range missile fire will take
out some, and tha many fighters would make doing that critical for a
chance at survival.

But that is perhaps a tactical mistake. Maybe the fighter launch
should have been done at longer range. Still, there wasn't much
chance that Trevayne's ships wouldn't be ready for an attack, so I
think that trying to close -- while helping protect the fighters from
long range shots and limiting the time before close contact made that
irrelevant, plus perhaps some chance to limit warning the rest of
Zephrain's forces of the trap -- was a mistake.

A longer range launch would reveal the presence of intruders, but
the carriers themselves would be beyond counterstrike. A monitor
battlegroup can't chase down fast carriers.

Still, on the tactical side, the odds of detection were tiny.
Dropping the fighters a minute out from kill range would be shockingly
effective -- classic cavalry charge tactics. If the point defense
gunners were a little slow, maybe they'd even get in close without
being hurt badly.

DW points out the small chances. Risk is part of the choice --
improve the odds of success in the battle at the expense of a
miniscule chance of disaster.

As I said, if the gamble -- call it 50:1 odds or so in favor of
reaching launch point undetected -- paid off, Zephrain's mobile forces
would be gone, and both warp points would be effectively secured for
use. A siege action against Zephrain could lead to capitulation,
without risking a direct assault on its planetary defenses.

In the event, maybe the odds weren't so hot, and maybe Trevayne just
got lucky. A 2% chance of dying (odds might be a bit more or less, I
can't recall the exact values) might not seem that bad, and it is easy
to assume that an excellent chance to avoid detection is about the
same as no chance to be spotted.

--
*-__Jeffery Jones__________| *Starfire* |____________________-*
** Muskego WI Access Channel 14/25 <http://www.execpc.com/~jeffsj/mach7/>
*Starfire Design Studio* <http://www.starfiredesign.com/><!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
 >> Stay informed about: Insurrection 

In article <aahhhvg1atv8ti9o2t8iosffp9ur9b6h0l DeleteThis @4ax.com>,
jeffsj DeleteThis @execpc.com says...
 > On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 13:44:05 -0400, Dan Swartzendruber
 > <dswartz DeleteThis @druber.com> wrote:
..
 >
 > The Republic knew that the warp point defense forces were present for
 > sure. Where the monitors were at was a mystery. If they *were* in
 > orbit, then a "Pearl Harbor" attack, analogous to the bombardment of
 > the big shipyards, would work.
 >
 > But what if they weren't there? To find out, the carrier group
 > would need to get close enough to risk detection, and at that point
 > they'd be rather committed to an attack on the planet. In fact, they
 > might not get away if they were wrong about the fast mobile forces at
 > the planet. Plus -- I'm not positive of course -- there could be
 > fighters based there, even though there were no carrier ships.

The carriers were accompanied by a cloaked scout cruiser. Why not send
it ahead to find out?

 > The warp point, OTOH, is known to have at least some of the mobile
 > force present, plus the forts. If you're lucky, the monitors will be
 > there too.

If you're not lucky though, big trouble. It's far more important to
take out the monitors and such than the WP defenses. If that doesn't
work, your own battle line units face a toe to toe slugging match, and
may not prevail.

 > As for why the assault takes few losses, retreat is a viable option.
 > Ships get ripped up, but the first wave in has some chance of turning
 > about and escaping before dying. There is no need to stick around.
 > With SBMHAWK pod missiles, the defense can be weakened. Even if the
 > assault force goes away, forces on the warp point can't pull back or
 > relax too much.

Point.

 > Given the travel time for Trevayne, it seems unlikely that the
 > assault was a single engagement. It was more a hit and run, strike
 > and fall back sort of assault, rather than a committed unrelenting
 > push.

Point.

 > I do think that if the Republic had enough fast cloaked units, the
 > direct assault would have made sense. But Zephrain's planetary
 > defenses are -- as best as I recall -- one of the best around. The
 > fortresses built to stop the Bugs were mostly mothballed, but I don't
 > think they dismantled all of the orbiting and surface (rare among
 > Federation worlds) defenses built to protect the key base against the
 > pesky Bugs.
 >
 > So they needed to smash Trevayne's mobile force and have enough
 > firepower left to overwhelm the planetary defense. That means a lot
 > of the ships which are too slow or uncloaked models, in order to have
 > the firepower to secure an easy surrender.

Well, as you said, if they are lucky, they catch the monitors (either at
the warp point or in orbit), if not lucky, things don't go so well, and
Trevayne can possibly get his monitors back to the planet to defend
there.

 > Less than that, and I figure that Zephrain would tell the intruders
 > to suck rocks (or vacuum). Unless the force can reduce the shipyards
 > -- which they want intact -- and the defenses (which would be nice to
 > keep), surrender means having clear overwhelming force, and a
 > superiority in morale.

True.

 > Blowing away Trevayne's forces and all the mobile forces would do a
 > lot to make that work.

True. Wherever that happens.

 > Still, a sneak attack trying to catch the ships in port would be
 > wise, if they could time that to match a similar strike against the
 > known warp point defense force. Hit both at once, so that neither can
 > warn the other of the hidden attackers. Couple it with a direct
 > assault, since it is still a bit shorter route to come in that way,
 > and once they take Zephrain, they'll want it as a supply line.
 >
 > I think they made a mistake, but a couple of minutes more without
 > detection, and Trevayne would be the one fighting to the death,
 > possibly hit without effective countermeasure. Once the fighters are
 > up and flying, taking a shot at the carriers won't seem nearly as
 > vital as pot shots at the fighters. Long range missile fire will take
 > out some, and tha many fighters would make doing that critical for a
 > chance at survival.
 >
 > But that is perhaps a tactical mistake. Maybe the fighter launch
 > should have been done at longer range. Still, there wasn't much
 > chance that Trevayne's ships wouldn't be ready for an attack, so I
 > think that trying to close -- while helping protect the fighters from
 > long range shots and limiting the time before close contact made that
 > irrelevant, plus perhaps some chance to limit warning the rest of
 > Zephrain's forces of the trap -- was a mistake.

Unfortunately I just loaned the series to a friend, so I can't look this
up, but I thought I remembered that the carriers weren't going after
Trevayne - he was heading for the warp point, and so were they, on a
converging course. I don't recall his units being cloaked, so if
Ashigar knew he was there, why wouldn't she have fallen back a bit, and
cut over to come up behind him and hit him with her fighters (at
whatever range?)

 > A longer range launch would reveal the presence of intruders, but
 > the carriers themselves would be beyond counterstrike. A monitor
 > battlegroup can't chase down fast carriers.
 >
 > Still, on the tactical side, the odds of detection were tiny.
 > Dropping the fighters a minute out from kill range would be shockingly
 > effective -- classic cavalry charge tactics. If the point defense
 > gunners were a little slow, maybe they'd even get in close without
 > being hurt badly.
 >
 > DW points out the small chances. Risk is part of the choice --
 > improve the odds of success in the battle at the expense of a
 > miniscule chance of disaster.
 >
 > As I said, if the gamble -- call it 50:1 odds or so in favor of
 > reaching launch point undetected -- paid off, Zephrain's mobile forces
 > would be gone, and both warp points would be effectively secured for
 > use. A siege action against Zephrain could lead to capitulation,
 > without risking a direct assault on its planetary defenses.

True. How about this? If you aren't sure where the heavy units are,
and don't want to scout for them, bring her carriers in cloaked as
before, and station them midway between zephrain and the WP (somewhat
off to the side, and cloaked.) The diversionary attack comes in. Watch
for a bit and see if any heavy units move away from the planet toward
the WP, if so, wait until they go by and hit them from behind. If not,
proceed toward the WP and do the original plan.

 > In the event, maybe the odds weren't so hot, and maybe Trevayne just
 > got lucky. A 2% chance of dying (odds might be a bit more or less, I
 > can't recall the exact values) might not seem that bad, and it is easy
 > to assume that an excellent chance to avoid detection is about the
 > same as no chance to be spotted.

Oh clearly he got lucky! I hope I wasn't implying otherwise. My
complaint was that I thought the plan was bad (not only that, but there
were better plans...)<!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
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On Sat, 19 Jul 2003 09:35:40 -0400, Dan Swartzendruber
<dswartz DeleteThis @druber.com> wrote:

 >In article <aahhhvg1atv8ti9o2t8iosffp9ur9b6h0l DeleteThis @4ax.com>,
 >jeffsj@execpc.com says...
  >> On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 13:44:05 -0400, Dan Swartzendruber
  >> <dswartz DeleteThis @druber.com> wrote:
 >.
  >>
  >> The Republic knew that the warp point defense forces were present for
  >> sure. Where the monitors were at was a mystery. If they *were* in
  >> orbit, then a "Pearl Harbor" attack, analogous to the bombardment of
  >> the big shipyards, would work.
  >>
  >> But what if they weren't there? To find out, the carrier group
  >> would need to get close enough to risk detection, and at that point
  >> they'd be rather committed to an attack on the planet. In fact, they
  >> might not get away if they were wrong about the fast mobile forces at
  >> the planet. Plus -- I'm not positive of course -- there could be
  >> fighters based there, even though there were no carrier ships.
 >
 >The carriers were accompanied by a cloaked scout cruiser. Why not send
 >it ahead to find out?

That would work OK, but might risk exposure if it were detected?

Also, I think that the carriers weren't quite enough to pull off a
close strike on a planet. Plus of course, they have pretty good
sensors there, and maybe can't do as close an approach as they
expected to pull off against the warp point?

We aren't given a solid listing of the planetary defenses, but it
was a major fleet base, with big shipyards, and that is the sort of
place which you ring with sensor satellites. Even discounting that,
the big space stations pretty much force fighter launch at range, and
if there are planetary fighters, that means a big dogfight before
being able to hammer the ships.

Run in close? I think that the risk would be higher. It makes
sense to pull a "Pearl Harbor" fighter strike when you have
overwhelming fighter firepower. But in space, the fighters can't hide
behind the horizon. And I just wouldn't trust my luck for a close
enough approach to beat that -- against Trevayne's ships, the number
of "eyes" out -- sensor platforms -- was limited, the drive field was
distorting that somewhat, and there was the point that vigilance might
be lower.

Zephrain's planetary defenses would be more likely to pick up the
carriers in close.

It isn't a bad plan.

But it does mean no two-front coordinated attack.

Such an assault might draw out the monitors, to do a deliberate
sneak run behind them. But that would entail the same risks of the
meeting in the book. I'm presuming that the battlegroup *did* waggle,
turning slightly about the base course, in order to get peeks behind.
That is normal procedure. A close chasing group can beat it by timing
their run right -- such waggles can't be done too often without
slowing down the travel time.

It comes down to a bunch of unknowns, really. And a reasonable
decision, one made in error, to try to secure the system without
engaging Zephrain's planets at all.

Hmm, maybe not at all was the plan? After all, the RDS facility
wasn't on the main planet, and *its* defenses were surely pitiful in
comparison to the main world.

We see it from Trevayne's POV, not that of the Republic's planners.
Maybe they felt that securing space and taking RDS was enough, so that
risking a sneak attack on the main planet wasn't worth it. A siege
would be easy to do, using older uncloaked ships would do that fine.
They had a *lot* of such ships, but had to secure space and that meant
smashing the warp point, and if lucky, all of the mobile forces. If
the monitors were at the WP -- as they could have been, and maybe they
believed they would be -- the attack would catch all of their targets
in one basket.

  >> The warp point, OTOH, is known to have at least some of the mobile
  >> force present, plus the forts. If you're lucky, the monitors will be
  >> there too.
 >
 >If you're not lucky though, big trouble. It's far more important to
 >take out the monitors and such than the WP defenses. If that doesn't
 >work, your own battle line units face a toe to toe slugging match, and
 >may not prevail.

The Republic had no monitors at that point. Biggest ships were the
carriers, then some battleships and battlecruisers made up the bulk of
their operating forces. Maybe they had some, but I think most were
destroyed in the fighting earlier. Key targets, you know?

  >> As for why the assault takes few losses, retreat is a viable option.
  >> Ships get ripped up, but the first wave in has some chance of turning
  >> about and escaping before dying. There is no need to stick around.
  >> With SBMHAWK pod missiles, the defense can be weakened. Even if the
  >> assault force goes away, forces on the warp point can't pull back or
  >> relax too much.
 >
 >Point.
 >
  >> Given the travel time for Trevayne, it seems unlikely that the
  >> assault was a single engagement. It was more a hit and run, strike
  >> and fall back sort of assault, rather than a committed unrelenting
  >> push.
 >
 >Point.
 >
  >> I do think that if the Republic had enough fast cloaked units, the
  >> direct assault would have made sense. But Zephrain's planetary
  >> defenses are -- as best as I recall -- one of the best around. The
  >> fortresses built to stop the Bugs were mostly mothballed, but I don't
  >> think they dismantled all of the orbiting and surface (rare among
  >> Federation worlds) defenses built to protect the key base against the
  >> pesky Bugs.
  >>
  >> So they needed to smash Trevayne's mobile force and have enough
  >> firepower left to overwhelm the planetary defense. That means a lot
  >> of the ships which are too slow or uncloaked models, in order to have
  >> the firepower to secure an easy surrender.
 >
 >Well, as you said, if they are lucky, they catch the monitors (either at
 >the warp point or in orbit), if not lucky, things don't go so well, and
 >Trevayne can possibly get his monitors back to the planet to defend
 >there.

And maybe that is OK. What if all they want is the RDS and the warp
point access? Monitors are tough, but if the Republic controls the
system, they can leave them sitting there under siege for a long time.
A bottled up threat is at least one you can ignore for a while.

  >> Less than that, and I figure that Zephrain would tell the intruders
  >> to suck rocks (or vacuum). Unless the force can reduce the shipyards
  >> -- which they want intact -- and the defenses (which would be nice to
  >> keep), surrender means having clear overwhelming force, and a
  >> superiority in morale.
 >
 >True.
 >
  >> Blowing away Trevayne's forces and all the mobile forces would do a
  >> lot to make that work.
 >
 >True. Wherever that happens.
 >
  >> Still, a sneak attack trying to catch the ships in port would be
  >> wise, if they could time that to match a similar strike against the
  >> known warp point defense force. Hit both at once, so that neither can
  >> warn the other of the hidden attackers. Couple it with a direct
  >> assault, since it is still a bit shorter route to come in that way,
  >> and once they take Zephrain, they'll want it as a supply line.
  >>
  >> I think they made a mistake, but a couple of minutes more without
  >> detection, and Trevayne would be the one fighting to the death,
  >> possibly hit without effective countermeasure. Once the fighters are
  >> up and flying, taking a shot at the carriers won't seem nearly as
  >> vital as pot shots at the fighters. Long range missile fire will take
  >> out some, and tha many fighters would make doing that critical for a
  >> chance at survival.
  >>
  >> But that is perhaps a tactical mistake. Maybe the fighter launch
  >> should have been done at longer range. Still, there wasn't much
  >> chance that Trevayne's ships wouldn't be ready for an attack, so I
  >> think that trying to close -- while helping protect the fighters from
  >> long range shots and limiting the time before close contact made that
  >> irrelevant, plus perhaps some chance to limit warning the rest of
  >> Zephrain's forces of the trap -- was a mistake.
 >
 >Unfortunately I just loaned the series to a friend, so I can't look this
 >up, but I thought I remembered that the carriers weren't going after
 >Trevayne - he was heading for the warp point, and so were they, on a
 >converging course. I don't recall his units being cloaked, so if
 >Ashigar knew he was there, why wouldn't she have fallen back a bit, and
 >cut over to come up behind him and hit him with her fighters (at
 >whatever range?)

They weren't cloaked. The approach from ahead achieves faster
closer, a shorter time of exposure, and puts the fighters in position
for a fast run in. Monitors don't turn on a dime, you know?

Tactically, a rear approach might be better. But they still might
get detected if they got too close, and a rear approach means more
time spent getting to the launch range (with a lower chance of
detection per second, but maybe the number of seconds of exposure made
up for that?)

It was a matter of her forces going to the warp point, spotting the
monitors at longer range, and moving to intercept. We don't see
Ashigara's thinking, so I can't say exactly why it was done that way.
But if I was the carrier group commander and spotted the monitor
battlegroup away from the warp point, I'd try for a strike.

The tactical choice was a mistake as it turned out, but the luck was
a big factor. If the carriers launched, close enough, the fight would
be over quickly *and* the carriers would be unlikely to draw fire.
Sometimes when you gamble, you lose. But the odds were in favor of
the close cloak strike plan.

  >> A longer range launch would reveal the presence of intruders, but
  >> the carriers themselves would be beyond counterstrike. A monitor
  >> battlegroup can't chase down fast carriers.
  >>
  >> Still, on the tactical side, the odds of detection were tiny.
  >> Dropping the fighters a minute out from kill range would be shockingly
  >> effective -- classic cavalry charge tactics. If the point defense
  >> gunners were a little slow, maybe they'd even get in close without
  >> being hurt badly.
  >>
  >> DW points out the small chances. Risk is part of the choice --
  >> improve the odds of success in the battle at the expense of a
  >> miniscule chance of disaster.
  >>
  >> As I said, if the gamble -- call it 50:1 odds or so in favor of
  >> reaching launch point undetected -- paid off, Zephrain's mobile forces
  >> would be gone, and both warp points would be effectively secured for
  >> use. A siege action against Zephrain could lead to capitulation,
  >> without risking a direct assault on its planetary defenses.
 >
 >True. How about this? If you aren't sure where the heavy units are,
 >and don't want to scout for them, bring her carriers in cloaked as
 >before, and station them midway between zephrain and the WP (somewhat
 >off to the side, and cloaked.) The diversionary attack comes in. Watch
 >for a bit and see if any heavy units move away from the planet toward
 >the WP, if so, wait until they go by and hit them from behind. If not,
 >proceed toward the WP and do the original plan.

Makes sense. But I think that they planned for a properly
coordinated double attack. Frontal on the warp point, and once the
fortresses launched fighters -- and maybe had them empty -- the
carriers would be in place for a close launch. Monitors present or
not, the combined force would quickly secure the warp point. Do that,
and the rest of the fleet can hunt down the remaining forces.

If they had enough scouts, sending one in early for close warp point
scouting would be fine, plus enough ships to handle relaying the
messages back without revealing courier drones. I don't think that
they had the forces to do it right.

But they felt that they had enough to do it with a clever plan, one
which could have easily worked. It was messed up two ways.

One, the warp point assault began early, or perhaps Ashigara was
running late. Don't know why that happened, but it wouldn't take that
much. A drive failure, temporarily, would slow down the carriers
(running fast is hard on engines, maybe they felt a need for it),
maybe there was some message sent, who knows. But it wasn't timed
perfectly, off by a few minutes.

Two, the obvious battle with Trevayne, which wasn't really so much a
battle as a turkey shoot. When the enemy can't see you, the fight
gets a *lot* easier.

  >> In the event, maybe the odds weren't so hot, and maybe Trevayne just
  >> got lucky. A 2% chance of dying (odds might be a bit more or less, I
  >> can't recall the exact values) might not seem that bad, and it is easy
  >> to assume that an excellent chance to avoid detection is about the
  >> same as no chance to be spotted.
 >
 >Oh clearly he got lucky! I hope I wasn't implying otherwise. My
 >complaint was that I thought the plan was bad (not only that, but there
 >were better plans...)

It was. But it was also poorly executed. When you have little room
for error or bad luck on the battlefield, Murphy's Law kicks in

But then, if the Republic had the forces for a proper assault, we
wouldn't have the same story.
--
*-__Jeffery Jones__________| *Starfire* |____________________-*
** Muskego WI Access Channel 14/25 <http://www.execpc.com/~jeffsj/mach7/>
*Starfire Design Studio* <http://www.starfiredesign.com/><!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
 >> Stay informed about: Insurrection 

I pretty much agree with you. My one complaint is what the Republican
officer said later - too complex and tricky of a plan, and if anything
goes wrong, you'r porked (as it did.) Also, the more I think of it, the
more I don't like the fact that the two-pronged attack seems to require
being right about Trevayne's BG's location - if it's still back at
Zephrain, it can hold the planet (or even maybe the research facility),
since the Republican forces aren't as battle-line heavy. I also really
wish we were told how the TF discovered the location of the closed WP.
It shouldn't have been from Ashigara's force (4 ships, all of which were
almost certainly hard kills.) It kind of strains credulity that any of
the ships participating in the diversionary attack would have had the
information in the databases (too much risk of giving away a huge
strategic advantage if a ship is captured relatively intact.) As it is,
it smacks a little too much of an authorial handwave (the later large-
scale attack would have fared far better if it hadn't been decimated by
the new-type anti-SBMHAWK mines at the old WP, and if it could have
bypassed that WP entirely, Trevayne might well have lost anyway,
although the HBMs would have badly reamed the Republican attackers.)
I'm wondering, now that you mention it, the mission should have been to
capture the research facility, but destroy it (depriving the TF of it)
if that is not possible. That wasn't really mentioned, that I can
recall...
 >> Stay informed about: Insurrection 

I do think you are overlooking the point that Admiral Ashigara had no reason
to know exactly the dispositions of the fleets prior to entering Zephrain.
Also its clear that the timing of the 'distraction' attack on the known
gateway was mis-timed and went in far too early. 'Murphy' does come into
play a lot when trying to co-ordinate attacks ofer interstellar
distances.Also its always better to destroy an enemy fleet 'in detail' in
this case away from the both the planets fixed defences and also the warp
point defences & frontier fleet. So with better timing and a little more
luck it would have been Ashigara's fighters not Trevaynes' Monitors giving
the other the suprise.




"Dan Swartzendruber" <dswartz.RemoveThis@druber.com> wrote in message
news:MPG.1981fbf024ef86a898997d@news.supernews.net...
 >
 > You make some good points, but I don't think they're addressing my
 > points. I wasn't advocating taking out the labs and shipyards, but
 > blitzing Trevayne's monitors while they were in orbit, with shields and
 > point defense offline. I'm also not sure why you think the frontal
 > assault force is going to take out the warp point defenses without
 > losses. My way, Trevayne's heavy units are destroyed or crippled with
 > little losses to the Republican attackers. You're now in control of
 > Zephrain orbital space and can demand their surrender. The warp point
 > fortresses can play with themselves, since they're out of the equation.
 ><!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
 >> Stay informed about: Insurrection 

In article <uubSa.49140$4c.6283@news-binary.blueyonder.co.uk>,
robjones.DeleteThis@viashino.freeserve.co.uk says...
 > I do think you are overlooking the point that Admiral Ashigara had no reason
 > to know exactly the dispositions of the fleets prior to entering Zephrain.

What do the words "scout cruiser" imply to you?

 > Also its clear that the timing of the 'distraction' attack on the known
 > gateway was mis-timed and went in far too early. 'Murphy' does come into
 > play a lot when trying to co-ordinate attacks ofer interstellar
 > distances.Also its always better to destroy an enemy fleet 'in detail' in
 > this case away from the both the planets fixed defences and also the warp

The planet itself had minimal defenses - had never needed them, as I
recall. And those defenses would have been just as inactive as the
fleet units in orbit.

 > point defences & frontier fleet. So with better timing and a little more
 > luck it would have been Ashigara's fighters not Trevaynes' Monitors giving
 > the other the suprise.

Sigh. I'm well aware of the fog of war.<!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
 >> Stay informed about: Insurrection 

"Dan Swartzendruber" <dswartz DeleteThis @druber.com> wrote in message
news:MPG.19831020b0e969f989721@news.supernews.net...
 > In article <uubSa.49140$4c.6283@news-binary.blueyonder.co.uk>,
 > robjones DeleteThis @viashino.freeserve.co.uk says...
  > > I do think you are overlooking the point that Admiral Ashigara had no
reason
  > > to know exactly the dispositions of the fleets prior to entering
Zephrain.
 >
 > What do the words "scout cruiser" imply to you?
 >
The scout cruisers are clearly outriders on Adm Ashigara's fleet my friend.
Solar systems are very big places and to have them hairing off on their own
when their role is clearly to scout for the strike-fighter launch that is
clearly intended. Of course there are many 'other' interpretations that can
be put on their use but this is the one the authors appear to have intended.

  > > Also its clear that the timing of the 'distraction' attack on the known
  > > gateway was mis-timed and went in far too early. 'Murphy' does come into
  > > play a lot when trying to co-ordinate attacks ofer interstellar
  > > distances.Also its always better to destroy an enemy fleet 'in detail'
in
  > > this case away from the both the planets fixed defences and also the
warp
 >
 > The planet itself had minimal defenses - had never needed them, as I
 > recall. And those defenses would have been just as inactive as the
 > fleet units in orbit.
 >
No major fleet base in any of the 4 books has 'minimal' defence and Zephrain
was built to face a Bug break-in to the system, so I would suggest some
re-reading is called for

  > > point defences & frontier fleet. So with better timing and a little more
  > > luck it would have been Ashigara's fighters not Trevaynes' Monitors
giving
  > > the other the suprise.
 >
 > Sigh. I'm well aware of the fog of war.

Well please be less pedantic in future then and just enjoy whan you read,
especially the work of 2 very good authors. There are inconsistencies in
the books but a lot of this arises from the fact that the 4th book in the
series was actually the 2nd to be written and thus confining tomplot
development in the 2 Bug war books if adhered to too rigidly...<!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
 >> Stay informed about: Insurrection 

Good point. If the Republic planners didn't know he was there, that
certainly changes things! I'd still love to know how Trevayne found the
closed point, as their tactical situation is much worse without knowing
it (smacks somewhat of deus-ex-machina...)
 >> Stay informed about: Insurrection 

In article <p9sqivsnmar0143ggrokto3dl098c211fv.RemoveThis@4ax.com>,
jeffsj.RemoveThis@execpc.com says...
> On Sat, 2 Aug 2003 12:11:19 -0400, Dan Swartzendruber
> <dswartz.RemoveThis@druber.com> wrote:
>
> >
> >Good point. If the Republic planners didn't know he was there, that
> >certainly changes things! I'd still love to know how Trevayne found the
> >closed point, as their tactical situation is much worse without knowing
> >it (smacks somewhat of deus-ex-machina...)
>
> My best guess remains the simplest: human intelligence. Someone
> gave the Federation the location deliberately.
>
> It isn't stated, but I find that more likely than getting lucky in
> survey watches, or capturing a ship with the location info on it.
> Technical intelligence just isn't going to give away the location of a
> closed warp point, unless the opposition makes a mistake using the
> point.

That was what I'd pretty much assumed.

> Now, the latter could have happened in the sense of human intel as
> well. One prisoner intentionally gave the info away, for whatever
> personal reasons.
>
> Not mentioning the method is an omission. But I figure that lacking
> evidence, the best guess is that someone gave the info to the
> Federation, either direct to the Rim, or indirectly through the
> Khanate (one of Sander's bits of info).
>
> Of course, it should have been pointed out. I'm still guessing that
> it was among the bits cut from the novel, and easily missed because
> the point where the info would be obtained (Kevin's visit?) and when
> it was far apart in the novel, easy to assume -- if you'd written it
> -- that it was still in there, someplace.

Does the SF system explain why the TF couldn't use the warp point chain
leading from Zephrain to Alpha Centauri? I vaguely recall someone long
ago mentioning maybe the Federation had ceded all that space to the Star
Union, but having read TSO, I can't imagine why (there was plenty of Bug
space to hand out that was already in close proximity to SU systems,
without giving away the Anderson chain...)
 >> Stay informed about: Insurrection