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Colonus

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Since: Jul 28, 2006
Posts: 1



(Msg. 1) Posted: Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:09 pm
Post subject: Thirty ghosts...
Archived from groups: alt>books>arthur-clarke (more info?)

At the start of 2001 comes the asssertion that for every person now
living there are thirty ghosts.

I've always wondered where that claim comes from. Is Clark quoting
some demography available at the time?

Also, given population change since the book came out, what would the
ratio be now?

thanks

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Brian Campbell

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Since: Jul 30, 2006
Posts: 1



(Msg. 2) Posted: Sun Jul 30, 2006 12:54 pm
Post subject: Re: Thirty ghosts... [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

OK, this quote has intrigued me as well. I do not know where Clarke got the
number, but after looking into it a bit, I believe the number is rather
high.

First, Wikipedia (World Population article) claims that of the population
living in the last 6,000 years, 1/5 is living today. That suggests a ratio
of 1 person to 4 ghosts, since 4,000 BC.

However, using a spreadsheet, I crunched their historical figures, making
what I think were reasonable mortality rates, I came up with a ratio of 1 to
5. Still within their ballpark. Projecting the population back to earlier
historic times doesn't change this much.

Going back to all prehistoric times, say when modern man emerged some
100,000+ years ago probably moves this up no more than a notch, probably 1
to 6, or 1 to 7.

Looking at the numbers in my spreadsheet, during the mid-60s when Clarke
wrote the book, the ratio then looks more like 1 to 10.



"Colonus" <sm42 DeleteThis @iserv.net> wrote in message
news:1154142568.587004.177780@i42g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
> At the start of 2001 comes the asssertion that for every person now
> living there are thirty ghosts.
>
> I've always wondered where that claim comes from. Is Clark quoting
> some demography available at the time?
>
> Also, given population change since the book came out, what would the
> ratio be now?
>
> thanks
>

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Yelps

External


Since: Oct 20, 2006
Posts: 1



(Msg. 3) Posted: Fri Oct 20, 2006 7:49 pm
Post subject: Re: Thirty ghosts... [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

"Behind every man now alive stand thirty ghosts, for that is theratio by
which the dead outnumber the living. Since the dawn of time,roughly a
hundred billion human beings have walked the planet Earth.-Now this is an
interesting number, for by a curious coincidence there areapproximately a
hundred billion stars in our local universe, theMilky Way.So for every man
who has ever lived, in this universe, there shines a star."(from Arthur C.
Clarke's foreword in 2001, A Space Odyssey, 1968)

The quote above has been discussed by ACC and he acknowledges some numerical
differences according to how the ststement is exactly interpreted, but I
think what is really happening here is he is alluding to ancient myths found
around the world in ancient culture that believe in each person becoming a
star and returning to being a star. This is kind of a natural meme in human
consciousness sicne the earliest known history.

The cosmology of each religion can be found in celestial bodies and there
movements and relationships as being viewed by ancient people caught up in
meditations, visions, . prayer and trance under dark skys for millenia.

dc







"Don't Spam The Goose" <Stop.Th@.Spam> wrote in message
news:NQEzg.4636$rP1.3379@news-server.bigpond.net.au...
> How is infant mortality taken into account? I imagine that could
> substantially alter the figures - whether a "person" is defines as a live
> birth or a child that lives past X years (or months).
>
> Brian Campbell wrote:
>> OK, this quote has intrigued me as well. I do not know where Clarke got
>> the number, but after looking into it a bit, I believe the number is
>> rather high.
>>
>> First, Wikipedia (World Population article) claims that of the population
>> living in the last 6,000 years, 1/5 is living today. That suggests a
>> ratio of 1 person to 4 ghosts, since 4,000 BC.
>>
>> However, using a spreadsheet, I crunched their historical figures, making
>> what I think were reasonable mortality rates, I came up with a ratio of 1
>> to 5. Still within their ballpark. Projecting the population back to
>> earlier historic times doesn't change this much.
>>
>> Going back to all prehistoric times, say when modern man emerged some
>> 100,000+ years ago probably moves this up no more than a notch, probably
>> 1 to 6, or 1 to 7.
>>
>> Looking at the numbers in my spreadsheet, during the mid-60s when Clarke
>> wrote the book, the ratio then looks more like 1 to 10.
>>
>>
>>
>> "Colonus" <sm42 RemoveThis @iserv.net> wrote in message
>> news:1154142568.587004.177780@i42g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
>>> At the start of 2001 comes the asssertion that for every person now
>>> living there are thirty ghosts.
>>>
>>> I've always wondered where that claim comes from. Is Clark quoting
>>> some demography available at the time?
>>>
>>> Also, given population change since the book came out, what would the
>>> ratio be now?
>>>
>>> thanks
>>>
>>
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